QuantumScape Claims Minutes-Long Ceramic Firing as Solid-State Race Tightens

CATL, the Chinese manufacturer behind roughly 40% of the global battery market, poured nearly $2.6 billion into solid-state battery research in 2024 alone — a signal of how much capital is now chasing a technology that has been "just a few years away" for more than a decade.

Solid-state batteries replace the liquid electrolyte of lithium-ion cells with a solid ceramic or polymer. In principle, the design charges faster, lasts longer, packs more energy into a smaller volume, and runs cooler — addressing the fire risk that grounded lithium-ion packs have made familiar. Whether any of those laboratory advantages survive mass production is the question every R&D manager in the sector is now pricing in.

What still breaks the cells?

Two engineering problems dominate. First, dendrites: needlelike lithium filaments that grow during charging in designs pairing a solid electrolyte with a lithium-metal anode. The electrolyte is supposed to physically block them. In practice, many electrolytes crack as the treelike projections push through, like roots splitting a concrete foundation, until the cell shorts.

Second, manufacturing. Scale production requires large quantities of defect-free ceramic-like sheets, plus dry rooms for assembly because the electrolytes react with water. Vendor price quotes vary widely, but most manufacturers expect solid-state packs to reach cost parity with lithium-ion only sometime in the mid-2030s. Any near-term premium will land on vehicle buyers, who typically absorb each uptick in cost.

What progress has been measured?

QuantumScape, the Bill Gates–backed Silicon Valley startup founded in 2010, says it is closing in on commercialization. The company built its battery around a class of ceramic materials it claims is compatible with lithium, eliminating dendrite formation. "We spent, then, like 10 years learning how to process it to satisfy all of the other requirements," says Tim Holme, cofounder and chief technology officer.

In 2025, QuantumScape announced a proprietary large-scale manufacturing method for producing and heat-treating its ceramic electrolytes. Ceramics have been fired slowly in ovens over days for some 10,000 years, Holme notes; the company claims to have shortened that to several minutes. "Nobody has ever done this in the field of ceramics before," he said. That claim is the company's own, and independent throughput data has not been published.

Toyota, which started its solid-state research program in 2010, is now partnering with petroleum and energy firm Idemitsu Kosan on a pilot plant. The stated target: cars traveling up to 745 miles after charging in 10 minutes or less — a projection, not a demonstrated fleet specification.

Mercedes has produced a measured data point. Last fall it fitted one EQS sedan with solid-state batteries; the car drove 750 miles nonstop and still had range to spare. A single demonstrator vehicle, however, says little about cycle life or cost at production volumes.

Who buys first?

Grid storage operators, facing rising demand from data centers, may hesitate to adopt a technology that has not yet come down the cost curve. The promise of storage lasting beyond lithium-ion's typical eight hours could offset that caution, though no vendor has yet demonstrated such duration commercially.

Some firms are copying the fusion sector's playbook: target near-term, high-margin markets first. California-based Solid Energies and Arizona-headquartered Sion Power are pursuing aviation and military buyers. "Those are sectors that are less sensitive to cost, and they typically require lower volumes as well," says Evelina Stoikou, head analyst for battery technologies and supply chains at BloombergNEF. "It's a good way to prove your concept, then go through and fund the pilot plant where you can make that and eventually scale up."

The technology works in laboratories, the capital is committed, and demand is not far behind. But as with anything in manufacturing, the unknown unknowns — dendrites, defect rates, dry-room costs — remain the variables that will decide whether the mid-2030s parity forecast holds.